LME exchange data, New Caledonia production & export statistics — daily market monitoring
As of 7 August 2026 (NC morning). SMM figures from the daily sheets in the folder: SMM Nickel Morning Briefing (6 Aug) and SMM Indonesia Daily Nickel Market Info (5 Aug) — no newer SMM sheet added since. LME = official settlements, latest confirmed 6 Aug: cash $16,595 / 3-month $16,775 / stock 264,444 t (Westmetall; LME site shows the 3M closing price $16,762, −2.06%, day-delayed). Yuan converted at USD/CNY 6.75 (≈6.7484 spot on 5 Aug 2026; week range ~6.74–6.76); Chinese spot prices are VAT-inclusive (13%), so USD conversions of refined nickel / SHFE run above LME cash.
Cash settlement, USD/t · month-end (latest 6 Aug $16,595, third straight fall from 4 Aug $17,125). Peak ~$19,450 early May; trough ~$16,065 early Jul.
LME warehouse stock, kt · month-end (latest 6 Aug 264.4 kt). One-way draw since Feb; near-flat this week.
Seaborne ore CIF China by origin & grade, USD/wmt · 5–6 Aug 2026 (SMM sheets). Bars scale with grade — normalise per 1% Ni (table right) before comparing origins.
Ore benchmarks — CIF, government HPM & derived FOB
| Ore (grade) | CIF China | ≈ FOB | per 1% Ni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia limonite 1.2% | 29.5 | — | 24.6 |
| Indonesia limonite 1.3% | 31.5 | — | 24.2 |
| Indonesia saprolite 1.4% | 54.9 | — | 39.2 |
| Indonesia saprolite 1.5% | 61.2 | — | 40.8 |
| Philippines 1.3% | 46.0 | ~32 | 35.4 |
| Philippines 1.4% | 56.5 | ~42 | 40.4 |
| Philippines 1.5% | 64.5 | ~50 | 43.0 |
| SMM CIF 1.6% (H1 26 avg) | 69.0 | — | 43.1 |
| NC / SLN 1.8% (CNFEOL) | 93.0 | ~78 | 51.7 |
Read the last column, not the second. The $/wmt headline scales with grade, so the NC 1.8% number is not comparable to Philippine 1.5% — normalised per 1% Ni the ladder is orderly (24 → 43 → 52), reflecting the genuine non-linear premium high-grade saprolite earns (less flux, less energy, more throughput per tonne of nickel). NC 1.8% = CNFEOL "other mining countries", H1 2026 average — Q2 was higher at $95.8; a different index provider from the SMM rows. Philippine FOB = CIF − freight ($13–15/wmt). Indonesia is domestic (HPM benchmark), not export-FOB. HMA (all-grade) $16,646/mt, 1st-half Aug.
Confirmed quarterly series for SLN (Doniambo ferronickel + NC mining), from Eramet's Q1/H1/FY releases — the only NC operator reporting audited quarterly volumes. Plant status for Prony Resources (Goro / usine du Sud, NHC) and KNS (Koniambo, NPI) is confirmed but their monthly tonnages are not machine-readable this run (they sit in the DIMENC bulletin / downloadable Excel, which are JavaScript-gated). Ore volumes in thousand wet metric tonnes (kwmt); ferronickel & NPI in kt of contained Ni (kt-Ni).
SLN ferronickel — production vs sales, kt-Ni · quarterly
SLN NC mining — ore produced vs ore exported, kwmt · quarterly
SLN quarterly series (Eramet) — with FY anchors. Ore in kwmt; ferronickel in kt-Ni; CIF price $/wmt
| SLN series | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | FY 24 | FY 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ore produced (kwmt) | 700 | 694 | 809 | 762 | 632 | 908 | 2,910 | 2,965 |
| Ore exported (kwmt) | 230 | 169 | 116 | 54 | 73 | 285 | 647 | 568 |
| Ferronickel produced (kt-Ni) | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 32.9 | 36.3 |
| Ferronickel sold (kt-Ni) | 8.2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 32.9 | 36.2 |
| Ni ore 1.8% CIF China ($/wmt) | 75.0 | 81.3 | 79.7 | 79.2 | 90.2 | 95.8 | 72.7 | 78.8 |
Q2 2026 rebound: ore mined jumped to 908 kwmt and exports to 285 kwmt (east-coast sites partially reopening), but ferronickel output eased to 8.8 kt-Ni. SLN excluded from Eramet Group KPIs since 2024; losses fully financed by the French State (€236m for 2026).
NC metallurgical plants — status & latest confirmed throughput
Prony NHC = mixed Ni+Co hydroxide (battery feed); monthly Ni & Co tonnages are in the DIMENC bulletin — see the dedicated PRNC section below. For contrast, Eramet's Indonesian Weda Bay (38.7%) produced 35.8 kt-Ni NPI in 2025 vs SLN's 36.3 kt-Ni ferronickel — comparable Ni output, very different cost/policy regime.
Now on real monthly data from the DIMENC "Production mensuelle" bulletin (Jul 2025 – Jun 2026). Since PRNC is New Caledonia's only NHC/cobalt producer and SLN its only ferronickel producer, the bulletin's NHC series = Prony and its ferronickel series = SLN. PRNC (usine du Sud) runs an HPAL plant making NHC (mixed nickel-cobalt hydroxide, ~37% Ni / 2–3% Co; battery feed, Tesla off-take). Monthly values are read from the bulletin charts (approximate, ~±0.1 kt-Ni / ±10 t Co); SLN's monthly ferronickel is reconciled to Eramet's audited quarterly totals (9.2 / 9.6 / 9.3 / 8.8 kt-Ni), and the NHC 12-month sums (~36 kt Ni, ~2.7 kt Co) match the annual anchors. Exact figures would come from the DIMENC Excel / Looker table.
New Caledonia nickel production by plant — monthly, t Ni contained (DIMENC)
Jul 25 – Jun 26. NC total ~5.1–7.3 kt-Ni/month, split almost evenly: Prony (NHC) and SLN (FeNi) each ~3 kt-Ni/month. Jan 2026 peak (~7.3 kt), May 2026 trough (~5.1 kt). SLN bars reconcile to Eramet's audited quarterly totals.
PRNC cobalt — monthly, t Co contained (DIMENC)
Prony is New Caledonia's only cobalt source (contained in NHC). ~135–305 t/month, ~2,695 t over 12 months; tracks NHC nickel (Jan peak, May trough) at ~7.4% of contained Ni — consistent with NHC's 2–3% Co / 37% Ni grade.
PRNC production — quarterly aggregates of the monthly DIMENC bulletin (Jul 25 – Jun 26)
| NC series | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | 12-mth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC nickel — Prony (kt-Ni) | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 36.4 |
| NHC cobalt — Prony (t Co) | 775 | 660 | 745 | 515 | 2,695 |
| Co / Ni ratio (%) | 8.0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 7.4 |
| Ferronickel — SLN (kt-Ni)* | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 36.9 |
*SLN ferronickel = Eramet audited (shown for comparison). Over the 12 months the two NC plants produced near-identical nickel — 36.4 kt-Ni (NHC/Prony) vs 36.9 kt-Ni (FeNi/SLN). NHC exports Q1 2026: 18.1 bn CFP (~€152m), ×2.4 y/y, 52% of NC exports (ISEE). Monthly values read from the DIMENC bulletin charts — approximate; SLN reconciled to Eramet quarterly totals.
Sulphur — Middle East FOB / Kuwait KSP, $/t · the PRNC cost driver
≈+400% since Jan 2025; ~7× the 2024 low (~$120/t). 2024–early-2026 points are Middle East FOB spot; Jun–Aug 2026 are the official Kuwait Sulphur Price (KSP, FOB Kuwait). Delivered CFR China runs ~$150–200/t higher (freight + Hormuz war-risk insurance → ~$1,000–1,070/t late-Jul). Sulphur ≈ 29% of HPAL cash cost at >$530/t — the key squeeze on PRNC margins & the ramp gap above.
Ore exports by destination — June 2026, confirmed (DIMENC)
| Destination | Wet t | %Δ y/y | t Ni | Ni % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea (SNNC) | 357,596 | +23.3% | 5,267 | 1.47 |
| China | 306,109 | +415.9% | 3,805 | 1.24 |
| Japan | 27,100 | −44.7% | 327 | 1.21 |
| Total | 690,805 | +73.5% | 9,400 | 1.36 |
Value FOB 4.4 bn XPF (+99.6% y/y) ≈ €36.9m. Korea takes 52% of wet tonnes but 56% of contained nickel — SNNC gets the higher-grade saprolite (1.47% Ni) at a higher unit value. China's +416% surge is the swing factor.
Realised price check (declared FOB value ÷ tonnes, at 119.33 XPF/EUR and EUR/USD 1.17): Korea $71.3/wmt @1.47% = $48.4 per 1% Ni; China $51.2 @1.24% = $41.2; Japan $49.3 @1.21% = $40.8. Scaling NC's realised per-unit value up to 1.8% grade gives ~$74–87/wmt FOB ≈ $89–102/wmt CIF — which brackets the $93 CNFEOL index. So the 1.8% figure is corroborated by NC's own declared export values, not just an index. Caveat: Korea's premium is a related-party flow (NMC and SNNC are both SMSP 51% / POSCO 49%), so its unit value is less arm's-length than the China/Japan prints.
The tracked aggregate for miners that publish nothing individually — SMT (Ballande), SMGM (Montagnat), NMC and others. Korea ≈ the SNNC/POSCO off-take (NMC mines: Ouaco, Poya, Nakéty, Kouaoua; SMSP 51% / POSCO 49%; SNNC ~54 kt-Ni/yr ferronickel + ~21 kt/yr matte unit). Wet metric tonnes. June 2026 is exact (table above); prior months are read from the bulletin chart (~±20 kwmt) — the June-2025 back-calculation from the y/y percentages reconciles to the chart, which validates the reading.
Monthly ore exports, total wet tonnes (kwmt) · Jun 25 – Jun 26
~5.5 Mwmt over 13 months. Collapse in Jan–Feb 2026 (~155 / ~105 kwmt) — cyclone season plus site access — then a strong recovery to 691 kwmt in June 2026 (+73.5% y/y), the best month of the period. Consistent with SLN's own Q1 export trough (73 kwmt) and Q2 rebound (285 kwmt).
June 2026 — destination split, wet tonnes & contained Ni
Ni bars scaled ×10 for readability. SLN accounts for only ~17% of NC ore exports (285 kwmt of ~1,631 kwmt in Q2 2026) — the majority is NMC-to-Korea plus the small miners shipping to China, so this series, not SLN's, is the real gauge of NC mining activity.
FOB price, USD/mt contained Ni · 18 Jun vs 5 Aug
Payables, % of reference index · 18 Jun → 5 Aug
SMM intermediates & matte — level and change since the 18 June support sheet (all USD FOB)
| SMM series (FOB) | 18 Jun | 4 Aug | 5 Aug | Δ Jun→Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHP nickel, $/mt Ni | 16,326 | 15,348 | 15,304 | −6.3% |
| High-grade matte, $/mt Ni | 16,412 | 15,731 | 15,781 | −3.8% |
| MHP cobalt, $/mt Co | 51,353 | 49,311 | 49,253 | −4.1% |
| MHP Ni payable, % | 86–87 | 85–86 | 85–86.5 | ≈ −1 pt |
| MHP Co payable, % | 95 | 92 | 92 | −3 pts |
Reading (7 Aug): nickel has now fallen three sessions straight — the confirmed 6 Aug LME official cash settled $16,595/t (−1.9% vs 5 Aug), giving back the whole 4 Aug spike ($17,125) as crude slid to ~$75/bbl on the Iran–Oman Strait-of-Hormuz route agreement (2–4 months, "not a full reopening"), easing sulphur cost-side expectations. Correction: the ~$17,116 6 Aug screen read carried yesterday (Trading Economics, flagged unconfirmed) was wrong by ~$520 and is discarded in favour of the official settlement. LME stock 264.4 kt (−336 t d/d), near-flat this week. Reported INSG swing to a ~32 kt 2026 deficit on Indonesian cuts (not primary-verified). Ore weak-to-stable — HMA +0.68% MoM to $16,646/mt but −11.5% since June. Intermediates/payables soft (weak sulphate), matte firmer than MHP. NC: the fall widens SLN's cash-cost gap to ~$0.97/lb (~$2,144/t) vs $8.5/lb — the worst since early July; but NC ore exports hit 691 kwmt in June (+73.5% y/y), the best month in 13, with Korea/SNNC taking 52% of tonnes and 56% of contained nickel. Territory's ~13 bn CFP (~€109m) end-August fiscal cliff in active MINC/Paris negotiation.
FX & basis: yuan→USD at USD/CNY 6.75 (≈6.7484 spot on 5 Aug 2026; week range ~6.74–6.76). Chinese refined-nickel & SHFE prices include 13% VAT, so USD conversions sit above LME cash — compare like-for-like on LME. Ore FOB ≈ CIF minus sea freight ($13–15/wmt Philippines→China per SMM).
Sources: LME — Westmetall official settlements (6 Aug: cash $16,595 / 3M $16,775 / stock 264,444 t), cross-checked against lme.com (3M closing $16,762, −2.06%, day-delayed). SMM Nickel Morning Briefing (6 Aug) & SMM Indonesia Daily Nickel Market Info (5 Aug), folder sheets. Oil/Hormuz — Bloomberg (5–6 Aug). Deficit — INSG via market coverage (reported). Ore prices — SMM sheets; HPM per Indonesia ESDM. Cobalt Rotterdam — Fastmarkets (carried, late Jul). NC production — SLN quarterly from Eramet (audited); monthly NHC/cobalt & ferronickel from the DIMENC "Production mensuelle" bulletin. NC ore exports by destination — DIMENC "Exportations de minerais de nickel" bulletin (June 2026 table exact; monthly chart values read, ~±20 kwmt). Generated 7 Aug 2026.
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